Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 24.674223 29.140623 34.630391 42.033241 52.018305 6.544302e+01 85.674264
2025-02-02 20.349039 25.806074 33.319480 44.966909 63.748330 9.550783e+01 161.326618
2025-02-09 16.642300 21.887133 29.553638 42.409004 65.531913 1.112757e+02 233.997435
2025-02-16 15.072366 20.511661 28.932763 44.214497 75.123910 1.487484e+02 433.381672
2025-02-23 13.555466 18.892413 27.499581 44.059746 80.789395 1.835503e+02 772.426375
2025-03-02 12.350040 17.548744 26.219854 43.753583 85.980218 2.242340e+02 1524.356438
2025-03-09 11.511318 16.664810 25.547513 44.429525 94.026824 2.889004e+02 4496.884401
2025-03-16 10.472227 15.316005 23.817845 42.408331 93.797060 3.207062e+02 11727.071308
2025-03-23 9.819242 14.548656 23.045421 42.324322 99.425424 3.986421e+02 376325.334451
2025-03-30 8.997920 13.408721 21.415923 39.891087 96.403398 4.191102e+02 NaN
2025-04-06 8.230338 12.303082 19.738391 37.051783 90.964133 4.144361e+02 NaN
2025-04-13 7.624246 11.440982 18.457779 34.984205 87.617450 4.244280e+02 NaN
2025-04-20 7.844338 12.099991 20.330154 41.435211 121.696520 1.068071e+03 NaN
2025-04-27 7.689034 12.054842 20.758652 44.296350 145.279381 2.271711e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 7.152063 11.242347 19.437137 41.793431 139.714773 2.467743e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 6.965961 11.084893 19.531035 43.560165 160.178221 6.076580e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 6.670145 10.689498 19.043510 43.408765 169.438665 1.295951e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 6.391834 10.307531 18.544082 43.109216 177.931249 3.700145e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 6.192052 10.066301 18.343711 43.770527 195.178930 2.531922e+06 NaN
2025-06-08 5.863639 9.545801 17.434253 41.792771 188.999464 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 5.661123 9.267823 17.079129 41.710547 199.897397 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 5.353785 8.760285 16.130799 39.328298 187.477742 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 5.042159 8.231827 15.103021 36.546688 170.151549 NaN NaN